In my first three season predictions combined (2004-2006), I was off by a total of only 1 game. So my confidence was high leading into last season. Then I predicted a record of 9-3 for the 2007 season.
Needless to say my confidence has now been thoroughly and totally broken. Nevertheless, I'll give this year a shot:
- San Diego State: WIN - If the team is as bad as it was last year, then there'll be no such thing as a "safe" game this season. Michigan lost to App. State last year. Anything's possible. But I'd say the odds of us being that bad again this year are low. Our defense last year consistently made the same mistakes. Tenuta will correct those mistakes and I expect our defense to be our rock this season. The offense is another story. It's not humanly possible for it to get worse than last year (when it looked like my highschool's defense would have shut them down), so the only direction is up.
- Michigan: WIN - This one will probably be an ugly game. Michigan's offense will stutter, still trying to learn their new system. Tenuta's aggressive blitz package should match up extremely well here. If ND's offense sticks to the basics, it hopefully can put up a few points. I'm glad this one's at home.
- @ MSU: LOSS - To be honest, this one was a flip of the coin for me. I have no clue. MSU has their QB back as well as Javon Ringer back at running back. I suspect MSU will be much improved over last year, though they are only returning 6 starters on offense and 6 on defense. If our defense is reduced to guessing with its stunts and blitzes, we'll get burned.
- Purdue: LOSS - Another tough call. Purdue loses some key defensive talent, but reports are that they have some promising replacements. On offense, they return their top runner and they return Painter at QB. Even if our defense plays decently, I don't see our offense keeping up. Purdue is in the middle of a coaching transition, and its results will be interesting to see.
- Stanford: WIN - Hopefully this is one of those "safe" games that actually will be safe.
- @ UNC: WIN - Ditto. I've heard that UNC could be a surprise this year. I'll buy it when I see it.
- @ Washington: LOSS - I think Washington was better than their record last year, as they put up a fight in a handful of somewhat close losses. Their schedule this year is as imposing as it was last year. They have a new defensive coordinator and a new special teams coach, both of which were needed changes. So they'll be tough and they'll be playing emotionally, with all the press the game will be getting (Willingham versus ND, omg!). Because of that coverage, I really really really hope I'm wrong on this one.
- Pittsburgh: WIN - Pittsburgh returns a lot of starters (total of 15), but their schedule up to this point is kindof a joke. Besides that, I have no clue.
- @ Boston College: WIN - Matt Ryan is gone at QB. We gave them a good game last year. This year they'll be weaker and we'll be better.
- Navy @ Baltimore: WIN - So Navy is no longer an automatic call. Still I can't think they'd beat us two years in a row, especially with a new coach.
- Syracuse: WIN - See: Stanford and UNC.
- @ USC: LOSS - Well miracles are possible I suppose. But I don't count on them. Even if ND is much better than I could imagine this year, they'll still be facing a stacked USC team on the road. Signs point to a blowout.
...
So that's 8 wins and 4 losses. Level of confidence: very low.
Back in June, Sean and I each made our predictions for what ND's record would be for the 2007 season. We also conducted a blog poll that received well over 300 votes. Here is how we fared...
My prediction:
As is usual for me, my prediction of 3-9 was 100% dead on. Oh wait. Maybe I had those numbers reversed. [looking back at my post]. Yep, I called for a 9-3 season--pretty dismal performance on my part. I can only take solace in the fact that I was not alone in my relative optimism. Looking game-by-game, I only called 4 games correctly: our losses to Michigan and USC and our victories over Duke and Stanford.
Sean's prediction:
At 7-5, Sean's prediction was closer to the actual mark. Sean also did better than me in his game-by-games. Like me, he correctly predicted wins over Duke and Stanford and losses to USC and Michigan. Also like me, he incorrectly predicted a loss to UCLA. Finally, he called our loss to BC.
Using the handle "IRG," which I presumed to be Gilleran based on the the last 2 letters and the tone of the comment, Gilleran predicted that we would go undefeated in 2007:
From here on out the story repeats itself, ending with an undefeated season. The element of surprise combined with the unrelenting desire to play like champions proves to be the difference. Irish stun the college football world (again).
Well, he was kindof right in those last 2 sentences wasn't he...
We're seventeen-point dogs in this game, but how good is Penn State really? It's hard to judge so far this year, as all they've done is beat up on a vastly inferior Sun Belt team. So, since the best evidence we have thus far is their performance from last year, let's look at that.
Penn State suffered four losses: to us (41-17, with 14 of those points in the last 6 minutes), Ohio State (21-6, with all of OSU's points and 3 of PSU's obtained in the second half), Michigan (17-10, with 7 of PSU's points obtained in the last 4 minutes), and Wisconsin (13-3). All 4 teams were ranked at the time PSU played them - us at 4, OSU at 1, Michigan also at 4, and Wisconsin at 17. In each of these games except ND - PSU from last year, Penn State was still in the game for a long time, but ultimately proved ineffective. Notice also that in two games, Penn State scored most of their points at the end, after the game was essentially over.
Now, the games that Penn State won. First, solid victories or blowouts against Akron (!), Youngstown State (!!), Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, and Temple. None of those teams are impressive, and I don't even know why Penn State plays Akron or Youngstown State. PSU also managed to eke out a 4-point victory, 17-13, over MSU at the end of the season, long after John L. Smith had degenerated into utter senility. That leaves only two teams: Minnesota, a 6-7 team that PSU beat 28-27, and Tennessee, who PSU played in a bown (and was the only ranked team that PSU beat).
So, PSU played a schedule with some very high quality opponents, but couldn't beat any of them (with the exception of their bowl). Their schedule also contained a LOT of low-end opponents, most of which PSU easily defeated. There was very little middle ground in the caliber of PSU's foes. Their ranking is bloated from last year, where they "earned" the ranking through a record on mostly-weak out-of-conference opponents and managed no victories over in-conference opponents of significance. Though I haven't been following Penn State in the offseason, the only evidence of improvement that I've seen so far is that they're now able to beat up on their cupcake foes by a greater margin than they did last year.
So given all this, what do I predict? I'm unsure, but more because of uncertainty about our play than because Penn State especially scares me. Based on what we saw against Georgia Tech, the reports of O-line practicing this week, and the changes in our quarterback, it's hard to say what to expect. I'll offer two predictions, based on how well the O-line performs:
Either way, we'll do better than predicted and the game will be close most of the way through. Our defense should perform better this week.
EDIT: I had mistakenly labelled FIU a "FCS" team. That's incorrect, they are a Div. I-A team that plays in the Sun Belt Conference. I assumed incorrectly, and I apologize for the mistake.
I like Luke’s optimism, but I honestly don’t see us winning 9 games. We’ve got 4 certain wins (Navy, Air Force, Duke, Stanford) and 2 certain losses (Michigan, USC). That leaves 6 tossups (GT, PSU, MSU, Purdue, UCLA, BC). I would be absolutely shocked if we took 4/6 of those tossups with our eight (8) seniors, and even then we’d only be up to 8 wins. Realistically, I’d say our floor would be 2/6 and our ceiling would be 4/6. All in all, I think 3/6 is reasonable given Charlie’s cunning, and that gets us to 7 wins.
Georgia Tech: Wow, a young offense with a totally inexperienced quarterback couldn’t ask for a worse way to start the season. GT’s blitz-crazy defense is extremely hard for any QB to read, and they’ve got some real talent on D. Charlie’s got a lot of time to draw up an effective gameplan, and if we can control the line of scrimmage and ram it down their throats, all the exotic blitz packages and wacky formations in the world won’t be able to help them. However, if we get down and have to pass a lot, our offense will have a pretty miserable day at the office. On the flip side, GT lost the best receiver in the country to the NFL and has to break in a new QB themselves. Combine that with the fact that they pretty much have no idea what to expect scheme-wise from our defense, and I think we’ve got a pretty good chance to dominate their O. All in all, I’m predicting a very low scoring game and a win for the Irish.
@ Penn State: Not sure what to expect from these guys. I wasn’t too impressed with Morelli last year, and they lost a lot on defense. However, this is a home game for them and they get to work out the kinks in a scrimmage against Florida International the week before. I don’t see our ridiculously inexperienced team getting it done in their first road game at one of college football’s most storied venues. I’m predicting a loss, but I also thought last year’s game would be a lot harder than it turned out to be. Hopefully I’m wrong.
@ Michigan: We’re not going to the big house with eight seniors and taking down a highly ranked Michigan squad. The good news is that, the way recruiting has gone the last few years, I don’t foresee us losing to them again for quite some time. Savor it this year skunkbears.
Michigan State: No one really knows what to expect out of MSU or its new coach. I’m going to be optimistic and predict a win, but I really have no idea.
@ Purdue: Charlie Weis isn’t going to lose to Purdue. Not now, not ever. Tiller is so thoroughly outclassed by Charlie’s coaching ability that I almost feel bad for the guy. For whatever reason, Charlie just has that guy’s number, and is always three steps ahead of him. Big win for the Irish that will raise expectations to an unrealistic level.
@ UCLA: Their defense is going to destroy us. We were lucky to score barely enough points with Brady Quinn and the Shark on board, and they return pretty much their entire defense. I’m not too sure what to expect out of their offense, but I get the feeling UCLA only needs to get about 10 points to seal the deal. After this loss, people will be calling for a new QB.
Boston College: Sigh, another loss. I’m so sick and tired of playing these guys. There’s absolutely no upside. I just can’t believe how unbelievably jacked up they get for this game. They play us like warrior poets, and it’s a huge advantage for them because, to us, they’re just another team on the schedule. Now, we’re used to teams giving us their best shot, but BC takes it to another level. They play us as if their lives depended on it. Their inspired play versus the Irish is nothing short of amazing. They make the passion filled Army-Navy game look like a half-hearted slapfight. We’d have a better shot against the Indianapolis Colts than we do against BC’s adrenaline pumped squad. Ugh. If we beat them, so what… we beat another mediocre team. If we lose to them, which happens all the freaking time thanks to their ungodly motivation, it’s an embarrassment. Thank God we’re ending the series with them. Another loss for the Irish.
USC: No shame in getting blown out by the #1 team in the country. Did I mention that we have eight seniors? Thanks Ty! This will get ugly.
Navy: Blowout win for the Irish.
Air Force: Blowout win for the Irish.
Duke: Blowout win for the Irish.
@Stanford: Blowout win for the Irish.
Bowl Game: I’m not going to make any predictions, because without knowing the opponent, anything I said would be silly conjecture. I’m thinking a 7-5 record will get us an Insight.com bowl bid, and hopefully our easy four-game stretch to end the season will give us some momentum and propel us to a win against our opponent.
