We're seventeen-point dogs in this game, but how good is Penn State really? It's hard to judge so far this year, as all they've done is beat up on a vastly inferior Sun Belt team. So, since the best evidence we have thus far is their performance from last year, let's look at that.

Penn State suffered four losses: to us (41-17, with 14 of those points in the last 6 minutes), Ohio State (21-6, with all of OSU's points and 3 of PSU's obtained in the second half), Michigan (17-10, with 7 of PSU's points obtained in the last 4 minutes), and Wisconsin (13-3). All 4 teams were ranked at the time PSU played them - us at 4, OSU at 1, Michigan also at 4, and Wisconsin at 17. In each of these games except ND - PSU from last year, Penn State was still in the game for a long time, but ultimately proved ineffective. Notice also that in two games, Penn State scored most of their points at the end, after the game was essentially over.

Now, the games that Penn State won. First, solid victories or blowouts against Akron (!), Youngstown State (!!), Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, and Temple. None of those teams are impressive, and I don't even know why Penn State plays Akron or Youngstown State. PSU also managed to eke out a 4-point victory, 17-13, over MSU at the end of the season, long after John L. Smith had degenerated into utter senility. That leaves only two teams: Minnesota, a 6-7 team that PSU beat 28-27, and Tennessee, who PSU played in a bown (and was the only ranked team that PSU beat).

So, PSU played a schedule with some very high quality opponents, but couldn't beat any of them (with the exception of their bowl). Their schedule also contained a LOT of low-end opponents, most of which PSU easily defeated. There was very little middle ground in the caliber of PSU's foes. Their ranking is bloated from last year, where they "earned" the ranking through a record on mostly-weak out-of-conference opponents and managed no victories over in-conference opponents of significance. Though I haven't been following Penn State in the offseason, the only evidence of improvement that I've seen so far is that they're now able to beat up on their cupcake foes by a greater margin than they did last year.

So given all this, what do I predict? I'm unsure, but more because of uncertainty about our play than because Penn State especially scares me. Based on what we saw against Georgia Tech, the reports of O-line practicing this week, and the changes in our quarterback, it's hard to say what to expect. I'll offer two predictions, based on how well the O-line performs:

O-line plays well: ND 27, PSU 21
Poor O-line play: PSU 24, ND 17

Either way, we'll do better than predicted and the game will be close most of the way through. Our defense should perform better this week.

EDIT: I had mistakenly labelled FIU a "FCS" team. That's incorrect, they are a Div. I-A team that plays in the Sun Belt Conference. I assumed incorrectly, and I apologize for the mistake.

Labels: , ,