Yikes. Had I purchased some pharmaceutical stocks before posting my previous entry, I would probably be paying off my student loans this week. (Actually, it would likely make more financial sense for me to re-invest the gains and… I digress) I think what struck me most about the worst case scenario is that, had I written one for 2007, it would have looked, almost verbatim, just like what actually transpired last year. And had I the foresight to predict disaster for the previous season, very few of you would have believed me. Yet, it happened.

That said, it is no more unlikely than this best possible outcome, which follows. By that I mean, both are long-shots. The important thing to remember (to return to the Wall Street references) is that 500 point crashes and rallies are quite uncommon. Neither unfettered pessimism nor "irrational exuberance" are good investment mindsets, and the smart investor/fan knows that the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.





San Diego State is met in South Bend by weather akin to that which they left, but the similarities stop there. The vast majority of players (and coaches) have never experienced such an awesome college football environment. Indeed, the Aztecs appear too distracted by the pageantry of Notre Dame to notice that the Irish, on the strength of 2 touchdown passes by Jimmy Clausen, have jumped out to a 14-0 lead after only one quarter. Corwin Brown's defense hasn't done much blitzing, but they've still managed to keep SDSU bottled up at their own end of the field. Weis's offense mostly settles for the short and simple passes of last year, spiced up with the occasional run to the outside, neither of which the Aztecs are able to stifle. The mood in the stadium goes from anticipation, to relief, and finally settles into boredom. Charlie wears a quiet smile for most of the game; he knows something the crowd doesn't. ND 31, San Diego State 10.

The following week, Rich Rodriguez discovers, to his horror, the reason for Weis's grin: he was holding back. Notre Dame's first drive consists of a brutal, smash-mouth, up-the-gut rushing attack. Allen, Aldridge and Hughes alternate in and out of the game, and the Wolverine defense is unable to catch its breath. When the Michigan offense takes over, down 7-0, Maurice Crum Jr. welcomes QB Steven Threet to the House that Rock Built by planting him face-first into the turf. Threet gets up bleeding… only to go down again on the very next play. Michigan is totally unprepared on both sides of the ball, and Rodriguez is scrambling. By the time the Wolverines figure out the run, Clausen smokes the Michigan secondary with a 60 yard play-action bomb to Golden Tate. The Wolverine offense, on the other hand, never does quite figure out the blitzes of the Irish defense. Chants of "TAH-NOO-TAH" rain down from the student section after every sack. ND 35, Michigan 13.

A rainstorm equal to the one that afflicted East Lansing in September of 2006, greets the Irish as they play against Michigan State. The team appears to be primed for an emotional let-down after last week's victory, as the Spartans jump out to a 21-7 lead at halftime. A totally different Irish squad emerges in the second half, and Notre Dame begins to climb back into the game. The Spartan faithful become unhinged as their lead evaporates, just as in 2006. Notre Dame is within 4 points with less than minute remaining, and the Irish have the ball. Clausen marshals the team, and the Irish faithful, who are legion at the game, begin to shower the Spartans with cries of "PUCK-ER! PUCK-ER!". ND calls their last timeout with 6 seconds left, at the Michigan State 22. As the clock expires, Clausen completes a touchdown pass to freshman Michael Floyd. The Irish fans explode in jubilation, but then fall silent at the sight of a red flag lying on the field. They and the team let out a sigh of relief, as the replay clearly shows Floyd just barely getting one of his toes down in bounds. But then, the referee returns from the video booth and reverses the call. Weis has to be restrained by his assistants. Later in the evening, even Mark May lambastes the Big Ten crew for a colossal screw-up. Michigan State 28, ND 24.

Before the start of the Purdue game, Brock Spack gazes over to the Notre Dame sideline. He remarks to Joe Tiller, "They look angry!" Weis hasn't said much the previous week, but AD Jack Swarbrick has been all over the media, lawyer-style, demanding that the replay official be immediately fired and that the NCAA investigate Big Ten officiating. Tiller isn't worried… until his returner is lit-up on the opening kickoff by Kyle McCarthy, to a rush of Bronx cheers by the crowd. The hitting is as intense as Irish fans have seen in a decade. Robert Hughes literally runs over a Boilermaker DB in the second half, and Notre Dame takes revenge on the Big Ten. ND 30, Purdue 17.

When Stanford arrives the next week, Jim Harbaugh wants none of the physicality on display during the last game. During his press conference, the Cardinal coach states that he hopes Weis is "over it". When asked, in response to Harbaugh's comment, if he actually is "over it", Weis replies, "He's about to find out." ND 45, Stanford 6.

The Irish travel to Chapel Hill to face an upstart Tarheel team that is surprisingly undefeated. Unfortunately, Tenuta happens to remember how to beat ACC teams. Interestingly, Mike Brey tags along, ostensibly to recruit for the basketball team. He and Weis are rumored to be discussing something, but no one is sure what. ND 33, North Carolina 20.

When Notre Dame faces Washington the following week, Tyrone Willingham is hanging on by his fingernails. Locker is performing remarkably, and the Huskies even managed to upset Oregon in their opener. But since then, they have gone 1-4. The game is built up by the commentators as a clash of coaching giants, with one man to emerge as the victor in the years-long debate as to who deserved what contract. Weis and the team are unimpressed with the hype, and they methodically put the Huskies to bed. Ty still has his apologists in the media, but mostly the pundits stick to talking about the next week's match up with the now 7th ranked and undefeated Pitt Panthers. ND 40, Washington 14.

ESPN's College Gameday shows up in South Bend, amidst overcast November skies. The campus atmosphere, however, is electric, with talk of a victory over the Panthers launching ND into a possible BCS berth. Herbstreit announces that he's privy to a rumor that will produce "shock and awe", while Corso picks the Panthers. The crowd packs into Notre Dame Stadium extra early, and the anticipation reaches its peak as the players gather in the tunnel. The announcer declares, "Here come the Irish!", the band strikes up the Victory March, and Notre Dame storms onto the field… clad in black jerseys with white numbers and bright green trim. The stadium explodes, and the gimmick carries the Irish to a win. ND 24, Pitt 20.

Boston College looks to play their traditional role of spoiler the next week, but Weis is on guard for any let-down. Tenuta's blitzes perplex the raw BC QBs, and the Irish return from Boston with the Frank Leahy Memorial Bowl in hand. ND 38, Boston College 9.

The Irish play Navy at noon the following week. Between the two rushing offenses, the game is over so fast that Charlie has time to head down to the Inner Harbor to grab some soft-shell crab before most restaurants have stopped serving lunch. ND 28, Navy 7.

Although the weather has turned bitterly cold and snow covers the field, Notre Dame stadium is packed with fans, wanting to show their appreciation for a turn-around season of epic proportions. The Orange have bothered to show up, but there is no dome to protect them from the inclement elements. There is also nothing to protect them from Tenuta. ND 42, Syracuse 13.

The eyes of the nation turn to Los Angeles, where 11-0 USC plays host to 10-1 Notre Dame. While not everyone is sure what an Irish victory would mean for their BCS hopes, celebrities from both rival camps pop up all over the Coliseum. Also in attendance is a group of some of the best high school recruits that California has to offer. The scoring opens with a Trojan touchdown, which the Irish answer with their own, although the extra point attempt is blocked. The next Trojan drive produces the same result, as does the following Irish one. ND's defense lets up its greatest amount of points all year; as good as Brown's squad is, USC is still just a shade or two faster. In the final moments of the 4th quarter, down 35-27, Jimmy Clausen once again leads the Irish down the field and all the way to the Trojan goal line. On 3rd and goal, James Aldridge finally punches his way into the end zone, bringing ND within 2. Weis calls timeout, huddles with the offense, and then sends them back onto the field. USC spots their formation, and Carroll calls for time. After 10 agonizing minutes of delay, Clausen takes the snap and lofts the ball into the end zone… just out of the reach of freshman tight-end, Will Yeatman. The Trojans are victorious, but the USC crowd applauds as the Irish band plays the Victory March. The recruits have moved over to the Notre Dame section, and are arm-in-arm with the Irish fans, singing the alma mater. USC 35, ND 33.

Notre Dame is selected as an at-large team to play in the Fiesta Bowl, against the undefeated Cougars of BYU. Although the headlines are filled with "Luck of the Irish" allusion regarding Notre Dame's draw of an opponent, BYU plays with intensity and grit. The game itself is hailed as the best of the BCS bowls. And as Charlie Weis shakes hands with Bronco Mendenhall after the game, everyone notices his smile. But this time, everyone knows what he's smiling about: 2009. ND 31, BYU 24.


[return to main page...]

I'm a little miffed that I already used a "the horror, the horror" line in the Ted Miller post, supra, so you'll just have to make due with this.



You may or may not recall that Miller is running best/worst case scenarios for each of the Pac Ten teams. But why should the Left Coast have all the fun? So I loaded up my old Enya albums, munched on some peyote, and composed these dream season and nightmare possibilities for the Irish in 2008. As is always the case with me, bad news first...

Please note, this is not for the weak of heart. I myself finished a bottle of Maker's after writing this, and my roommates had to wrestle a revolver loaded with a single bullet out of my hands.



On September 1st, the Monday before the season opener, a new Youtube clip of Jimmy Clausen participating in the "Beer Olympics" surfaces, and after being reported by ESPN and the blogsphere, receives tens of thousands of hits within 24 hours. The damning footage clearly depicts Clausen performing keg-stands and beer-bongs, among other horribles. Fr. Jenkins applies pressure to Coach Weis, and by Wednesday, Clausen is suspended for the first 3 games.

The team is understandably rattled, but thankfully senior quarterback Evan Sharpley leads the Irish to a 17-3 lead at halftime. Tragedy strikes early in the third, however, as Sharpley rolls his ankle trying to evade pressure, and is forced to leave the game. Determined that Dayne Crist should keep his red-shirt on, Weis sends in sophomore QB Brian Castello. The results are predictably disastrous: Castello throws two interceptions and fumbles away a snap in the second half. Meanwhile, the running game stagnates as there seems to always be a missed blocking assignment on rushing plays. The Aztecs come back to tie the game in the 4th, and only a Brandon Walker field goal saves ND from humiliation. ND 20, San Diego State 17.

Sadly, the humiliation was only delayed. A reinvigorated Michigan offense takes the field the next week and runs the Irish defense all over the field. A hobbled Sharpley has returned but sticks mostly to the sidelines, as the Wolverines hold a 2-1 advantage in time of possession at the half. The Indiana sun is still sweltering in mid-September, and it takes its toll on the beleaguered Irish defense. Fatigue sets in, and what was once just a double-digit deficit balloons into a blowout. Michigan 34, ND 13.

The Irish then travel to East Lansing to play who they now discover is the actual best team in Michigan. Javon Ringer rushes for over 200 yards as the word "Heisman" is thrown about. Brent Musburger, calling the game, is audibly aroused as heaps praise on the Spartans, and they win in a route. Michigan State 45, ND 16.

Feeling undeservedly snubbed by lack of playing time, Robert Hughes transfers to Northern Illinois. Rumors of a poisonous locker-room atmosphere begin to surface, as no upperclassman has taken up a significant leadership role. Purdue rolls into South Bend, already psyched up to play their in-state "rival", and capitalizes on the hapless Irish. The once beefed-up offensive line reverts to 2007 form, only slower from the added weight, just in time for Clausen's return. Jimmy is sacked 7 times. Joe Tiller is carried off the field. Purdue 28, ND 17.

Talk of firing Weis intensifies as Stanford comes to town. Charlie calls a closed-doors meeting with the team, pleading with them to resolve their differences in the name of the program. But after seeing three straight teams dismantle the Irish, Jim Harbaugh walks into Notre Dame stadium with a plan, and he leaves a victor, in overtime. The players are booed off the field. Stanford 28, ND 24 (OT).

The Irish travel to Chapel Hill to face upstart Tarheel team that is surprisingly undefeated. They stay that way. North Carolina 30, ND 21.

During the following bye-week, Fr. Jenkins huddles with AD Jack Swarbrick. Each is beset by angry emails and calls from alumni and boosters. Swarbrick is still adjusting to his new job, but he notes that the second half schedule looks easier for ND. He counsels that immediately firing Weis might ruin Irish chances at even these "gimme" games. Jenkins refuses to go over the head of the man he just hired 3 months ago, but he instructs Swarbrick to begin looking for replacements just in case.

Notre Dame lands in Seattle without 2 of their starting defensive linemen. The week off has not been enough time to recuperate for any of the defense, as they have been pounded for 5 straight weeks previously. Tyrone Willingam recognizes this, and unleashes his fiercest Husky, the Pac Ten's best QB, Jake Locker. Terrail Lambert twists his knee trying to tackle Locker, en route to his third rushing touchdown of the day. The Huskies improve to 6-1, and Willingham is given a 4-year contract extension. Washington 35, ND 21.

The Irish return home at the start of November to a half-filled Notre Dame Stadium. Half of that are Pitt fans. Both halves are hostile. Notre Dame stays competitive early, but the crowd pounces on the slightest Irish misstep. The Panthers begin to pull away by the 4th quarter, and the freshman section begins to chant "Weis: Resign!" A few upperclassmen, knowing better, try to stop them, but only half-heartedly. Pittsburgh 33, ND 17.

Next weeks brings the weakest Irish opponent in 2 months: 3-5 Boston College. The Eagles are doubtful to make a bowl, and consequently, to them this is the biggest game of the year. BC fans mock last weeks' ND students' chant with a refrain of "Re-sign Weis!". Boston College 24, ND 17.

After 8 consecutive losses, Charlie Weis is fired. Corwin Brown is promoted to interim head coach, Tenuta becomes defensive coordinator.

Brown rallies the team, determined not to lose to the Naval Academy for the second straight year. The game is hard-fought, but Irish finally emerge victorious. ND 30, Navy 28.

The joy of an Irish win is soon dampened the following week, when prized recruit Cierre Wood decommits from Notre Dame. Still, Notre Dame manages to stumble their way to victory against the Orange. Not that many fans stood in the 37-degree freezing rain to see it. ND 27, Syracuse 14.

For the final game of 2008, the 3-8 Irish meet with the 11-0 Trojans. Mercifully, most of the pre-game commentary concerns whether USC matches up better against LSU or Georgia in the BCS championship game. Angelinos laugh at the rag-tag collection of Irish players as they enter the Coliseum and spend most the game preoccupied on their cell phones. The faces visible under the golden helmets, those that aren't pointed at the ground, are utterly emotionless, as the gameclock ticks away the final moments of 2008. USC 53, ND 6.


[return to main page...]

The Chinese have invaded, Prohibition has been reinstated, and you have contracted a rare and incurable disease. But buck up, boys; at least we beat Notre Dame!



Booze? Who needs booze when you've defeated the Irish?!

Recently, the folks at the WWL acknowledged the superiority of blogging as a form of journalism and commissioned their minions to report on college football by conference, with Ted Miller designated to cover the Pac Ten (read: USC). For the past few days, Ted has been running "Best/Worst Case" scenarios for each team. Today was Washington's turn. An excerpt:

From the best case: "No worries about a flat start with Notre Dame coming to town. The hyped showdown between Willingham and his former school and former genius coach Charlie Weis isn't much of a game, as the Huskies sack Jimmy Clausen five times in a 31-17 win."

And the worst: "The Huskies start 0-6 and talk of a winless season starts. But... the Huskies upset Notre Dame at home."

Please note, in this latter "the horror, the horror" scenario, Jake Locker sustains a season-ending knee injury in the opener, Tyrone Willingham is canned after losing at home to Stanford, and the Huskies go on to win no other games in 2008.

Is that all you got, Miller? Really? Washington, at its best, beats ND by two touchdowns, and in a bed-soiling nightmare of 2008... still beats ND. And by what, a touchdown? A field goal? You're contending the difference between the Super-Huskies and Bad-News-Bears-Huskies is approximately 10 points. As this blog's resident pessimist, I think I could do a lot better than that!

There is a grain of truth to Miller's prediction. If Locker goes down, he takes Willingham with him. He is the Lebron to the Huskies' Cavaliers. The Ben Bernanke to their Fannie Mae. The Justin Timberlake to their N*SYNC. Ok, you get the picture. After the carnage of last season, I can't guarantee an Irish victory in Seattle. But against a Locker-less Washington, I like ND's chances. I like last year's ND's chances. I like Penn High School's chances.

On second thought, maybe Mr. Miller is right: Tyrone Willingham losing to Notre Dame isn't Washington's worst-case scenario. It's the media's.

The AP has released its preseason ranking:

1. Georgia (22)
2. Ohio State (21)
3. USC (12)
4. Oklahoma (4)
5. Florida (6)
6. Missouri
7. LSU
8. West Virginia
9. Clemson
10. Auburn

If I were a betting man (okay, I often am a betting man), I'd say that Missouri, West Virginia, and Clemson will not be in the top 10 after week 12.

/***/

Now, after the overwhelming success of our FAKGPBRS poll last year, we will be having the SAKGPBRS this year. You guessed it: Second Annual Kelly Green Performance-Based Ranking System.

SAKGPBRS's rules are the same as those of FAKGPBRS--found here.

Just a quick reminder that we won't be releasing the first installment of the SAKGPBRS until after week 3 of the season: "What happened last year should have absolutely no bearing on this year’s rankings. If Washington State starts out 3-0 and USC stumbles out of the gate, the Cougars will be ranked higher that the Trojans. None of this 'fighting last year’s failures' or 'coasting on last year’s success' nonsense."

Labels: FAKGPBCFRS, polls, SAKGPBRS

A few years ago, I heard about a survey conducted that was intended to gauge ordinary people's assessment of the likelihood of a catastrophic dam failure. As it turns out, people believe the risk of dam failure is smaller the closer they live to the dam, up until the people who live right under the dam, who ardently believe the dam will not fail under any circumstances. Even though dam failure is obviously physically possible, the people who are at risk of losing their lives are literally incapable of accepting that fact.

That's exactly how I feel about the Washington game. Losing to Ty's Bad News Bears is statistically unlikely, and although it is technically possible, I am totally incapable of recognizing that possibility because the consequences would be unfathomable. For this reason, I am personally guaranteeing a win against Washington.

I'll even go one step further. I will be in Seattle for the game, and should the unthinkable occur, I will throw myself into the pacific ocean and leave the rest in God's hands. If I survive, I'll start a new life wherever I wash ashore. I'll even have someone post a video of my sacrifice here on the site.

Labels: Denial, End of Days

Well the results from the old poll were pretty convincing: 51% of you thought that offensive line coach John Latina should have been replaced.

That was South Bend during the Willingham years, according to Michael Collins.

It's thorough, logical, indisputable and devastating. Required reading for anyone at a loss to explain last year's sack total, or dismal offensive performance in general.

Time to play "How Many Verbals Does Washington Have This Year!" Ok, who wants to start us off?





















Hmm.... I'd recommend going a bit lower, Coach.




















Nope, still lower. Getting warm though!


























Sorry, wishful thinking.

Rivals

Scout

But hey, I guess this is just more of us crazy Notre Dame fans making excuses for Charlie's disaster in 2007. Nothing to see here, folks!

Really. Nothing.


UPDATE! Apparently this blog has readers among the Willingham regime. Wouldn't you know it, Ty landed his first verbal today. And a quarterback, no less! But considering the way Tyrone recruits linemen (supra), this kid would be wise to take out a life insurance policy while he still can.

So you've heard that ND is set to name Indiana attorney Jack Swarbrick as its new Athletic Director. While it's difficult to judge this hire based on the scant relevant information we have, I'm inclined to view it positively.

First, I like the fact that Swarbrick is an attorney. With him at the helm, we shouldn't see a repeat of an O'Leeeeeery type disaster. He'll be careful to make sure ND's athletic programs are run cleanly and under the letter of the rules.

Second, I don't mind that Swarbrick has not been an A.D. or similar position at another university. Judgment, not experience, is important for this position. Unfortunately, we won't know how good Swarbrick's judgment is until he's made some important decisions.

Third, he's an ND graduate. I consider this an absolute requirement.

Last, it's a positive that Swarbrick has connections and familiarity with the NCAA. ND's Athletic Director, more than any other school's, acts as an ambassador for the school's interests. The biggest example of this is in the BCS. While other universities are represented by their conference's rep in the BCS, ND is represented by its A.D. and does not have a conference to support its interests. Swarbrick likely will be competent in this area.